Yield predictions for Jatropha. (March 2014)

 

The jatropha industry is screaming for reliable yield data. Several breeding companies are advertising improved varieties, based on breeding and selection results, but reliable data based on year to year measurements are hard to get and it will become harder and harder along the road.

Because, until recent, most studies, business plans and articles were stating that Jatropha plants will reach maturity around year 5 and because there were no reliable data, it almost became a fact.

Recently the evidence is growing that the moment of Jatropha reaching maturity is much more variable, depending on lots of environmental factors like soil and rain and temperature and probably on gene characteristics as well.

This makes it very difficult to predict volume and time of yield, which is, however, essential for creating a reliable business plan.

 

Below I gathered the most reliable data both from publications , from verbal communications and own experience.

(black is measured yield, red is calculated)

 

  

year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 average increase Source  
Tanzania (Bukoba) 0 43.75 763.75 1483.75 2203.75 2923.75 3643.75 4363.75 720   AvP    
India.Joil best case* 0 2000 3500 4400 6000 6000 6000 6000 800   Reddy via personal com.2014 (JOIL)
India.Joil base case 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 500   Reddy via correspondence (JOIL)
Thailand.Quinvita  0 230 700 1530 3080 5240 5980 6370 720   (AvP, via Quinvita, 2013)  
Paraguay 0 100 600 950 2000 3000 4000 4780 780   Heller    
Nicaragua 0 500 2327 2786 3484 4062.5 4641 5220 579   Foidl    
Vietnam (VBM) 0 165 1485 2200 4400 5500 6567 7634 1067   VBM publication  
Mozambique (Viridesco) 0 0 500 1000 2000 3000 4000 4875 875   Viridesco presentation  
Kenya (GTZ)* 0 6.66 141.61 198.25 793 991 1189 1427     Kenya reality check 2012  
Various countries 0 750 1500 2250 3000       750   JatroSolutions website 2015